The decline of the trilby - what 2020s fashion tells us about the economy

The trilby is in decline. Once a staple of mid-2010s fashion, it is no longer considered cool to try an experimental hat. The hats on offer are, at least in my bubble, a beanie or a baseball cap. A bucket hat might pass muster, but only when worn ironically, at a festival. A beret is absolutely out of the question. 

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Few may mourn the trilby hat. It’s almost impossible to look better in a trilby than out of one. But when we lose the trilby, indeed, when we lose any attempt at a whimsical hat, we lose so much more.

Cast your mind back to early 2016, the height of trilby fashion. Picture that hat paired with a banjo and a band that performs breathy acoustic covers of rock songs. The trilby is a mark of a generation that felt so confident, so breathtakingly optimistic about the future, that looking silly was a risk worth taking.

UK GDP had finally recovered from the financial crisis. Feminism was cool again. More businesses were starting. Brexit was never going to happen.

That’s not to say there were no dark clouds on the horizon - but fewer than there are today. By almost every metric, consumers and firms have reason to be more pessimistic than they were ten years ago.

When we feel confident about the economy, we make bolder choices. We switch jobs, we start new businesses, and we even start families. We wear a hat that almost no one looks good in.

It’s not just hats. Fashion leans radical in times of prosperity, but conservative in times of economic crisis. The Roaring Twenties saw flapper dresses, fringes, and bolder makeup. The Great Depression, on the other hand, saw muted colours and longer skirts. In fact, the Hemline Index suggests that skirts are shorter in economic booms, but longer in economic downturns.

Flapper fashion

This author’s entreaties to add the “whimsical hat index” have thus far been ignored.

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The lack of boldness in fashion is reflected in other areas. Compared with 2016, entrepreneurship is slowing, people are changing jobs less often, and are saving more. All this is concerning in an economy where productivity growth has stalled.

But there is some hope: the very latest surveys suggest an uptick in consumer confidence, especially among younger people. We may see the trilby grace our streets again.